Middle East: A New Order Standing on Feet of Clay
Géostratégie Magazine
May 2025
Written by
Roula Merhej
Two thousand six hundred years ago, Nebuchadnezzar had a dream that none of his sages could decipher. In this troubling vision, the greatest king of the Neo-Babylonian Empire (present-day Iraq) saw a statue composed of five parts. A gigantic and terrifying statue made of gold, silver, bronze, iron, and clay stood before him. A stone broke loose, struck the statue, which collapsed and was reduced to dust. The prophetic interpretation of this dream was then given by Daniel, a young Jewish exile, through divine inspiration. The head of gold is Babylon, the symbol of Nebuchadnezzar's glory and absolute power. The chest and arms of silver represent the Persian Empire that would succeed Babylon. The belly and thighs of bronze signify the Greek Empire, notably under Alexander the Great. The legs of iron symbolize the Roman Empire, powerful and destructive. Finally, the feet of iron and clay describe a divided, fragile, and unstable kingdom, often interpreted as the post-Roman realms or today's Middle East.
In a symbolic and theological sense, this dream foretells the decline of empires founded on violence and domination. In the historical interpretation, each metal symbolizes a power that succeeds the previous one. If one believes this four-stage prophecy of the great empires of the Near East, the era we are living in corresponds to the fragile and dangerous alloy of iron and clay.
The Middle East appears to be reenacting a biblical scenario, with all the global implications that entails. The election of Donald Trump, a man of "deals" above all else and an impatient architect of his own Babylon, has reshaped the world order. His current tour of the Gulf states marks a new era. One major absence, however, stands out in regional negotiations: Israel. Once at the center of strategic balances, Israel now finds itself isolated. Militarily formidable and technologically advanced, yet diplomatically eroded. The Hebrew state is experiencing a paradox: it has never been so powerful, yet never so alone. Images from Gaza have fractured unconditional Western support. The American ally, the traditional pillar of Israel's security, is beginning to bypass Tel Aviv. Saudi Arabia is therefore emerging as the strategic pivot and holds the key to a possible historic agreement on the recognition of a Palestinian state. Riyadh knows that the price of normalization with Israel will have to include the creation of a Palestinian state, at least formally recognized, even if its contours remain to be negotiated.
Donald Trump's United States, determined to counter China, appears ready to offer the ultimate asset to the Wahhabi kingdom: civilian nuclear power. A Saudi program that would be regulated and supervised, yet would elevate the kingdom to the status of a Sunni power possessing atomic technology, in a world where deterrence has been the currency of power since World War II. Unlike Pakistan, which has possessed nuclear weapons since 1998, Saudi Arabia seeks civilian nuclear energy for power generation, but with a latent ambition of regional deterrence, particularly vis-à-vis Iran. In this spectacular balancing act, Israel paradoxically becomes the most isolated element. Benjamin Netanyahu appears increasingly radical and difficult to manage, which may explain his marginalization in the new regional balances. Once an unconditional supporter, Donald Trump is now signaling strategic distance. Washington has opened direct negotiation channels with Hamas through regional intermediaries. This parallel diplomacy bypasses Israel and seems to herald a new phase: stabilizing Gaza without going through Jerusalem. At the same time, discreet talks with Iran are being revived, aimed at curbing China's growing influence as it advances its economic and military foothold in Tehran and Riyadh alike. Iran is becoming a piece on the chessboard rather than an enemy to be excluded from the game. The likely lifting of sanctions on Syria also appears to be taking shape, despite Israeli bombings. Everything points to a structural shift in American policy in the Middle East.
Daniel's interpretation of the dream is a masterpiece of political eschatology. More than a prophet for Judeo-Christians, Daniel embodies moral and spiritual resistance to dominant powers, and a vision of the world in which history is not linear but cyclical, shaped by fleeting glories and inevitable downfalls. Empires rise, harden, and then collapse under the weight of their own pride. Today, the recomposition of the Near East is underway. The creation of a Palestinian state, as a concession to history, could be announced in the coming days. The rise of a Sunni atomic power as a counterweight to Iran, and a Trump crowned as the new master architect of the Middle East, if not the world, do not for now appear to threaten the balance of the colossus with feet of clay. Yet history has taught us that it is precisely within apparent stability that the cracks lie hidden.